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Showing posts from July, 2026

WHO IS GOING TO BLINK FIRST ?

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  GROK: I’d still go for bust on AI and robotics—but with clear eyes on how brutal the Chinese competition already is. China is executing the exact EV playbook on humanoids, and they’re winning the early volume and cost war.  In 2025, Chinese firms accounted for roughly 90% of global humanoid robot sales.  Unitree alone shipped ~5,500 units (the world’s top seller) and is targeting 10,000–20,000 in 2026 at prices starting around $13,500–$16,000 for capable models like the G1.  Agibot was right behind at ~5,168 units and scaling fast; UBTech, XPeng’s IRON, and others are moving into mass production this year.  Tesla’s Optimus, by contrast, missed its 2025 targets, remains pre-commercial at meaningful scale, and is only now installing first-gen production lines with real sales likely slipping into 2027.  Musk himself has called China the toughest competitor by far. That manufacturing speed + cost advantage is real and structural (vertical integration, state s...

TESLA EARNINGS CALL.

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  GROK: Tesla shares have fallen sharply following the Q2 2026 earnings release and call (after the close on July 22, 2026), with the stock down roughly 12–13% in early regular trading on July 23. Key Results Tesla reported mixed results that disappointed on profitability: Revenue : Record $28.24 billion (up 26% year-over-year), beating estimates (roughly $25.7–26.4 billion). Automotive revenue was $20.52 billion; services rose ~50%. Adjusted EPS : $0.33, missing estimates of about $0.51 (and down from the prior year). Other pressure points : Gross margin ~16.8% (below expectations); operating income fell sharply (to ~$398 million); free cash flow turned negative at about –$1.1 billion; capital expenditures rose significantly (to ~$5.8 billion); operating expenses increased notably amid AI, Optimus, and robotaxi investments. Vehicle deliveries had already been strong (over 480,000 in the quarter). Stock Reaction Shares closed July 22 around $374 (down ~1.3% that day). They dropped...

TESLA REALITY, RIGHT NOW.

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  GROK: Got it — let's zero in on the two issues you raised. These are fair and substantive concerns that directly impact Tesla's valuation premium and my earlier outlook. I'll address them with current evidence (as of July 2026), without hype or dismissal. 1. Unsupervised FSD: Is it unattainable in the near/short term? Your point about the flood of failure videos is valid and well-documented . There are countless real-world examples shared on YouTube, Reddit (/r/TeslaFSD), and X showing issues like: Phantom braking Unnecessary full stops Veering toward oncoming traffic Poor intersection handling Lack of pothole awareness Wrong-lane turns Recent tests (including a 2026 Model Y Juniper drive) showed multiple failures in normal conditions. NHTSA has an active, upgraded investigation into FSD (Supervised), including low-visibility crashes, red-light running, and lane violations — with probes covering dozens of incidents. One involved a pedestrian fatality. Current reality (Jul...

'NEVER INVEST IN A BUSINESS YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND"

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  GROK: Warren Buffett invested heavily in Alphabet (Google) because it fits his classic "wonderful company at a fair price" framework , despite his broader caution about the AI spending arms race. Here's the reasoning based on what he's said and his long-standing philosophy: 1. Powerful, durable economic moat in core businesses Buffett has highlighted Google's dominant position in search advertising — what he and others have called the "tollbooth of the internet." This generates exceptionally high returns on capital with strong network effects, data advantages, and switching costs. The core ad business (Search + YouTube) is extremely profitable and cash-generative, which can fund Google's other bets (AI, Cloud, etc.) without destroying shareholder value. He evaluates the business on these fundamentals, not the "AI stock" label. 2. Bought at a fair price, not because of hype He has repeatedly emphasized that he doesn't love Alphabet as ...

FUTURE NARRATIVES.

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  GROK: The extreme "see-saw" volatility you’re seeing in Tesla (TSLA) stock recently is very real — and it was concentrated in late June to early July 2026. Recent Volatility Snapshot (Last ~90 Days) Here’s a zoomed-in chart focusing on the most recent period: Key stats from this period: Average daily price swing: ±2.38% Daily return standard deviation: 3.07% (very high — most stocks are closer to 1%) Multiple days with 4–8.5% moves The biggest see-saw moves (exactly what created the jagged pattern): Date Daily Change Close Price Context June 23 -5.79% $381.61 Sharp drop June 29 +8.46% $411.84 Strong rally into delivery report July 2 -7.49% $393.45 Big sell-off (biggest drop in nearly a year) July 6 +6.69% $419.77 Quick rebound July 7 -4.02% $402.90 Another pullback This created classic see-saw action: big up day → big down day → big up day, etc. Why Did This Extreme Volatility Happen? The main trigger was Tesla’s Q2 2026 Vehicle Delivery Report , released on July 2, 2026...

THE TESLA AETHERLINK.

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  GROK: AetherLink (AetherLink Pods / AetherLink MicroTransit System) AetherLink is a modular, electric micro-mobility system designed as the “iPhone moment” for informal urban transport in developing countries.  It replaces the chaotic, unsafe, and polluting three-wheelers, tuk-tuks, matatus, jeepneys, and mototaxis that dominate daily movement for hundreds of millions of people with a clean, safe, affordable, and intelligently coordinated alternative. Why AetherLink Fits Developing World Cities Perfectly These regions depend on high-utilization, low-cost informal vehicles because formal public transit cannot penetrate narrow streets, dense slums, or sprawling peripheries fast enough. The core problems remain the same:  deadly road safety, choking air pollution, extreme congestion, unreliable commutes for low-income riders, and poor economics for drivers. AetherLink solves this through deliberate design choices: Extremely nimble standalone pods (narrow profile, tight tu...