TESLA REALITY, RIGHT NOW.

 









GROK:


Got it — let's zero in on the two issues you raised.These are fair and substantive concerns that directly impact Tesla's valuation premium and my earlier outlook. I'll address them with current evidence (as of July 2026), without hype or dismissal.

1. Unsupervised FSD: Is it unattainable in the near/short term?

Your point about the flood of failure videos is valid and well-documented.

There are countless real-world examples shared on YouTube, Reddit (/r/TeslaFSD), and X showing issues like:

  • Phantom braking
  • Unnecessary full stops
  • Veering toward oncoming traffic
  • Poor intersection handling
  • Lack of pothole awareness
  • Wrong-lane turns

Recent tests (including a 2026 Model Y Juniper drive) showed multiple failures in normal conditions. NHTSA has an active, upgraded investigation into FSD (Supervised), including low-visibility crashes, red-light running, and lane violations — with probes covering dozens of incidents. One involved a pedestrian fatality.

Current reality (July 2026):

  • FSD remains supervised — the driver is legally responsible. (Even aged drivers with compromised reaction times and intervention-action)
  • "Unsupervised" robotaxi deployment at meaningful scale has not happened. The 2024 Cybercab event set expectations, but production timelines have slipped.
  • Tesla continues rapid iteration (end-to-end neural nets, frequent updates), and they claim improving internal safety metrics (miles per intervention). Their data advantage from millions of vehicles is real compared to geofenced competitors like Waymo or Cruise.
  • However, the gap between "improving supervised" and true unsupervised at scale (anywhere, any weather/condition, no human oversight, regulatory approval, liability solved) is enormous. Edge cases are infinite.

My assessment: Unsupervised FSD in widespread commercial use in the near term (next 12–18 months) looks highly unlikely based on current evidence and regulatory pace. 

Short term (through 2027), meaningful robotaxi revenue contribution also appears optimistic. This is a legitimate risk to the bull case — the stock's valuation prices in significant future autonomy upside. Delays or continued visible failures could pressure the narrative and multiples.

That said, Tesla's approach is uniquely data-driven, so long-term progress isn't impossible. But repeated timeline slips have eroded credibility here.

2. Vehicle sales "boom" driven by incentives + lack of Chinese competition due to tariffs

This is also partially accurate, with some important nuance.

Q2 2026 deliveries were genuinely strong: 

Official numbers show 480,126 vehicles delivered (+25% YoY), beating estimates by a wide margin. This ended a period of flatter growth and marked a record Q2.

However, the boost factors you mentioned are real:

  • Incentives and financing: Tesla ramped up aggressive loan programs and incentives across major markets (US, China, Europe) in Q2 amid higher input costs and softer organic demand in some regions. Analysts have explicitly called this "paying people to buy cars." US sales faced a tougher comparison in some periods, and growth benefited from a low base (refreshed Model Y ramp in 2025).
  • Chinese EV competition in the US: High Trump-era tariffs (continued/intensified) have effectively blocked most Chinese brands (BYD etc.) from the US market. This gives Tesla (and legacy US makers) meaningful protection in its home market — a real tailwind.

Counterpoints and global picture:

  • Growth isn't only incentives — strong Model Y/3 demand, Giga Shanghai exports, and Berlin ramp helped. BYD's BEV volumes were reportedly softer in some comparisons.
  • Globally it's mixed: Chinese brands are gaining share in Europe (record levels in places like the UK). Tariffs aren't a permanent "blatant lack" of competition — they're policy-dependent and could shift.
  • This volume growth is positive, but margins matter more than raw deliveries for profitability. Heavy incentives often compress gross margins (a key thing to watch in today's earnings).

How this affects the stock and my earlier prediction

These two issues are among the biggest risks to the autonomy-driven bull thesis:

  • Persistent FSD struggles + visible failures make the high valuation (still premium P/E) harder to justify without clear progress.
  • Sales growth that leans on incentives and tariff protection is less sustainable long-term than pure demand strength. If margins don't hold up in earnings, it validates some skepticism.


Updated short-term view (post-earnings today):


These concerns raise the bar for a strong reaction. A clean beat on margins + credible (even if cautious) comments on FSD/robotaxi progress would help support $400+. Weakness here (margin pressure from incentives or vague autonomy updates) increases downside risk toward the $340–360 zone.

Longer-term: The FSD unsupervised timeline is a major variable. If it slips further, the stock could de-rate. Sales volume is encouraging, but the incentive/tariff dependency highlights execution risks.

These are legitimate headwinds — not fatal, but they explain why the stock remains volatile and why analyst targets have a wide range. Earnings tonight will be a key test of how Tesla addresses (or deflects) exactly these points.


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