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 Critical Minerals for AI, Energy, Batteries, and EVs: Overview

The rapid advancement of AI (driving data centers and chip production), coupled with surging energy demands from electric vehicles (EVs), battery storage, renewables, and grid infrastructure, is intensifying the need for critical minerals.
These include lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earth elements (REEs like neodymium and dysprosium), and copper, which are essential for batteries, magnets, wiring, and electronics.
Global demand for these minerals is projected to grow 1.5x from 35,380 kilotons (kt) in 2024 to over 52,000 kt by 2040, driven largely by clean energy technologies.
Under net-zero scenarios, overall demand could triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2040.
Supplies are ramping up, but shortfalls loom for copper (30% gap by 2035) and lithium (deficits in the 2030s), while others like nickel and cobalt show improving balances if projects proceed.
Production is highly concentrated, with China dominating refining (over 50% for lithium, 66% for cobalt, nearly 100% for REEs) and mining concentrated in a few countries (top three nations hold 77% of output). Recycling could reduce mining needs by 25-40% by 2050.
Below is a summary by mineral, including main earthly sources (geological deposits and key producing countries), current supplies and reserves, projected duration/supply risks, and primary controllers. Data draws from 2024-2025 estimates; "duration" refers to projected supply adequacy against demand, not exhaustive depletion, as new discoveries and tech can extend viability.

Mineral
Main Sources on Earth
Current Supplies & Reserves
Projected Duration & Supply Risks
Primary Controllers (Production Share)
Lithium (For EV/battery cathodes; AI data centers boost demand via energy storage)
Brine deposits in South America's "Lithium Triangle" (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia); hard-rock mines in Australia, China; emerging in Zimbabwe, USA. Global reserves: ~98 million tons.
Production: 130,000 tons in 2024 (up 30% y-o-y). Reserves sufficient for decades at current rates, but energy sector drives 80% of demand growth.
Demand up 7x by 2035 under net-zero; near-term surplus (2025 oversupply), but deficits by 2030s without new projects. Could meet only 50% of demand by 2035. Recycling covers ~30% by 2050.
Mining: Australia (52%), Chile (25%), China (13%), Argentina (6%). Refining: China (>50%).
Cobalt (Battery stabilizers; AI infrastructure uses in alloys/power systems)
Sedimentary deposits in DRC; nickel byproducts in Australia, Indonesia, Russia. Global reserves: ~8.3 million tons.
Production: ~190,000 tons in 2024 (up 6-8% y-o-y). Supplies grew from DRC, but reserves may fall short long-term.
Demand up 3x by 2035; improving supply but potential deficit by 2035. Recycling reduces needs by 40% by 2050. AI/data centers add 2-3% to global demand by 2030.
Mining: DRC (70-75%), Indonesia (5%), Australia (4%). Refining: China (66%).
Nickel (Battery cathodes; AI chips/electronics)
Sulfide ores in Indonesia, Philippines; laterite deposits in Russia, Australia. Global reserves: ~100 million tons.
Production: ~3.3 million tons in 2024 (up 6-8% y-o-y). Supplies surged from Indonesia.
Demand up 3x by 2035, 300% in batteries by 2040; supplies catching up, but concentration risks oversupply/shortages. Adequate to 2040 if projects deliver.
Mining: Indonesia (50%), Philippines (11%), Russia (7%). Refining: China (33%), Indonesia.
Graphite (Battery anodes; AI energy storage)
Flake deposits in China, Brazil, Mozambique; synthetic from petroleum. Global reserves: ~330 million tons.
Production: ~1.7 million tons in 2024 (up 6-8% y-o-y). China leads natural graphite.
Demand up 500% in batteries by 2040; supplies improving with diversification, but potential gaps if demand surges. Capacity to rise 267% to 7.5 million tons by 2040.
Mining: China (65-70%), Brazil (9%), Mozambique (7%). Refining: China (nearly all).
Rare Earth Elements (REEs) (Magnets in EVs, wind turbines, AI hardware like motors/converters)
Mineral sands/deposits in China, Australia, USA, Myanmar. Global reserves: ~120 million tons.
Production: ~350,000 tons in 2024 (up 6-8% y-o-y). Supplies grew in China.
Demand up 3x by 2050; supplies catching up, but AI adds 3% to demand by 2030. Capacity to rise 45% to 110,000 tons by 2040.
Mining: China (60-70%), Australia (15%), USA (12%). Refining: China (nearly 100%).
Copper (Wiring, grids, AI data centers; EVs use 2.4x more than ICE vehicles)
Porphyry deposits in Chile, Peru, DRC; global reserves: ~890 million tons.
Production: ~22 million tons in 2024. Declining ore grades limit growth.
Demand up 2x by 2035, +50% by 2040; 30% shortfall by 2035 due to long lead times (15+ years for mines). AI adds 2% to demand by 2030. Recycling covers 40% by 2050.
Mining: Chile (25%), Peru (12%), DRC (11%). Refining: China (dominant, but less concentrated than others).


Geopolitical risks, environmental concerns, and long mine development times (15-16.5 years average) could exacerbate shortages.
Diversification efforts are underway (e.g., new lithium in Argentina), but concentration persists, with China controlling ~40-90% of refining across these minerals.
AI specifically amplifies demand via data centers (e.g., +512 kt copper by 2030) and chips (gallium/REEs up 85% by 2033).


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